World Oil Production Has Peaked and Will Steadily Drop
Filed Under: Uncategorized on November 24, 2009
An analysis posted on The Oil Drum refutes the assumptions of both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) that oil production will not decline, but will increase as the economy improves. Both agencies assume that technology and future investments in drilling innovation will be able to keep up with increasing technological demands to retrieve the oil.
When the IEA released their World Energy Outlook 2010, a whistleblower from the inside said that the IEA forecasts were gaming the numbers under U.S. pressure. Using both the IEA and EIA’s own numbers, The Oil Drum created their own prediction based on current oil production trends:
What the chart shows is that production (including crude, condensate and sands) peaked in 2005 at 73.72mbd (million barrels/day). That is based on EIA production data. With production slightly lower, but relatively steady from 2005 to 2008, this makes the plateau in the chart. All non-OPEC sources had peaked by 2004, according again to the EIA.
As declines in Russia, Norway, etc. decline next year and OPEC will not be able to compensate a year later as Saudi Arabia (world’s largest oil producer) peaked in 2005. The Oil Drum forecast says that in 2012, declines averaging 2.2mbd or so will increase suddenly, dropping quickly thereafter.
He estimates that even given optimistic reserve estimates (which do not change the peak of 2005), with production in 2040-2045 down to only 30mbd (early 1960s levels).
This despite the IEA’s estimates of increasing levels of production out to 2030 at over 100mbd.
That is not good, folks. As I said in the Sustainability Factor, everything from plastics to our food to the gas in our car depends on petroleum. Our best replacements are still at least ten to twenty years away (at best). In the mean time, folks, we have to shift our consumerist paradigm and begin acting more sustainable.
Who knows? Maybe it will catch on.
