US NRC Report Says Plug-Ins Not to Make Headway in Market for Decades
Filed Under: FutureCars.com, green automotive technology on December 17, 2009
In brief: A U.S. National Research Council report find that plug-in hybrid (PHEV) costs are likely to remain high and thus their impact on the market will remain low for decades.
The word
The costs of light-duty PHEVs is high, largely because of their lithium-ion batteries, and a decrease in those costs aren’t likely in the near-term. So says the report from the NRC.
The report looks at two configurations of plug-ins: a 10-mile range and a 40 mile range (all electric). Both have a larger battery pack than most standard hybrid electrics like the current Toyota Prius.
While the smaller 10-mile pack is much cheaper, it has little impact on the vehicle’s overall fuel economy and thus would be hard to rectify in any kind of return-on-investment scenario for consumers.
The cost difference between the average mid-sized sedan (gasoline ICE) rises by about $6,300 when it is instead manufactured as a PHEV with a 10-mile range and by $18,100 when fitted with 40-mile range batteries. That’s cost to manufacturer, not consumer.
The NRC predicts that it will take some time for the costs of lithium-ion batteries to fall enough to change this, as the chart above demonstrates.
And so …
While the study doesn’t look at battery electrics, the same scales of economy apply. While a BEV might recuperate its investment cost to the consumer faster, the total cost of these vehicles is still very high.
Photo credits: NRC
